Daniel T. Skinner, Adrian J. Matthews, David P. Stevens

Published in Geophysical Research Letters, August 2023

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

Skinner, D. T., Matthews, A. J., & Stevens, D. P. (2023). Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104576. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104576